A big story this campaign season has been Obama's ability to overcome huge polling deficits in a small amount of time to pull out victory. Currently, he is down about 8 pts in Ohio and in a statistical dead heat in Texas. Look below to see how well Obama has been able to close the gap or consolidate his lead in the final week leading up to the primary. (Caucuses were omitted and all polling numbers came from Pollster.com).
Final Vote....................1 Wk Out (gains)
MD 60%..................................55% (+5)
IL 65%....................................53% (+12)
GA 67%..................................48% (+19)
AL 56%..................................40% (+16)
WI 58%..................................48% (+10)
DC 75%...................................63% (+12)
VA 64%..................................54% (+10)
LA 57%..................................No data
UT 57%..................................52% (+5)
MO 49%................................42% (+7)
CT 51%..................................42% (+9)
DE 53%..................................42% (+11)
SC 55%...................................40% (+15)
These numbers show on average that Obama gains 11% in the week leading up to the primary.
Yes, I know this isn't scientific and I'm failing to take other variables into consideration such as debates, media coverage, media gaffes, Edward's involvement, money spent, campaign time in the state, inaccuracies in the polling data, etc...but one gets the point. Obama making up serious ground in the final week has been a consistent trend. The more people learn about him and hear him, the stronger his support gets.
Look for a Texas victory next Tuesday and a very, very close race in Ohio.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment